LEXINGTON, Ky. (LEX 18) — With less than three weeks from election night, the candidates for governor continue to battle for votes.
They have three more scheduled debates in the next several days. However, do debates really sway voters?
"Candidate debates rarely matter. Even when they move public opinion briefly - usually what happens is the effects go away after a little bit of time passes,” said Dr. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky. “By the time you get to mid-October in an election season, most voters have made up their minds.”
Voss explains what the election really comes down to at this point is who comes out to vote. He says both campaigns are likely focused on the mobilization phase - getting their supporters pumped up to vote.
“What you're going to be seeing from the candidates in the waning days of the election season - you might see a little more red meat, a little more partisan rhetoric to pump up the troops, than earlier in the season when they were trying to sway people,” said Voss. “Notice that Daniel Cameron once again has advertised his connection to Trump, which is something that doesn't help with swing voters, but maybe helps mobilize the hardcore Republican base. I expect we'll see from Beshear some attacks on Cameron or some upbeat messages - either of which is intended to motivate the base on the left."
Currently, Beshear leads in the polls and holds a money advantage in the race. However, Voss explains that polls don’t always correctly project who will actually vote.
"We have an illustrious comparison, which is Louisiana just held their governor's election and what we saw was that the actual votes for the Republican candidate was much better than the polls suggested,” Voss explained.
So, does Republican success in Louisiana mean trouble for Beshear? Voss says it means voter base mobilization will be key for both candidates, especially in an off-year election.
