(LEX 18) — Results from a new poll were good news for Governor Andy Beshear and Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
The poll, done by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, indicates Beshear still has strong job approval and leads against the current four big Republicans who are running for governor. The poll also indicates Cameron is the early Republican frontrunner in the GOP's primary election.
According to the poll, Cameron has a 26-point lead over his next highest challenger, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN and Canada Kelly Craft (39%-13%).
"He's better known. It's that simple," said Bob Babbage, local political commentator. "From his job, from his work, and from his presence around the state - he's better known right now. And he's leading in this poll."
Of the 404 likely Republican primary voters polled, 8% would throw their support behind Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, 5% would support State Auditor Mike Harmon, and then rest of the GOP candidates have 2% support or less. 28% of voters polled remain undecided.
However, Babbage says the other campaigns don't need to panic at this point. He emphasizes that the primary is still months away, so a lot can happen and change.
If Thursday's poll happened closer to the election, it would hold a lot more weight, according to Babbage.
"In fact, any poll we get a week out from the primary will be significant and that's what we're watching for - those later messages from polling of any sort," he said.
The poll also found that 61% of voters polled approve of Gov. Beshear's job performance. That's slightly up from 60% approval a year prior and 55% approval back in February 2021.
29% of voters disapprove of Beshear's job as governor and 10% said they were not sure.
So, Babbage points out that any candidate is going to have a difficult time beating Beshear.
"He's immensely popular in that way," said Babbage. "Incumbent governors are hard to beat in any race in any state - even when they poll less than 50. They still have an advantage of having the job."
When it comes to a general election match-up, Gov. Beshear holds significant leads over each of his leading Republican challengers, according to the poll.
In a head-to-head match-up with Gov. Beshear, Daniel Cameron trails the incumbent governor by nine points (49%-40%). The poll found Gov. Beshear has double-digit leads over the other leading GOP candidates, topping Kelly Craft by 57%-32%, Ryan Quarles by 52%-35%, and Mike Harmon by 53%-33%.
This poll was conducted from January 18 through January 23, 2023. A total of 625 registered Kentucky voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.
VIEW THE FULL POLL HERE:
Note: The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ±4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95% probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or party grouping.
This poll also included an oversample of 404 likely Republican primary voters. These voters were only asked questions relative to the Republican gubernatorial primary election. The margin for error of the primary results is ±5 percentage points.
