(LEX 18) — This May, Republican voters in Kentucky will have 12 candidates on their ballot in the primary race for governor. However, two separate polls show Daniel Cameron and Kelly Craft in first and second place, respectively. And one expert on voting behavior points out that voters tend to narrow in their options as Election Day approaches.
"Cameron's had the prominence and name recognition. Kelly Craft has had the money. And voters do have a tendency, as you get late in the election season, to try to reduce it to two choices. So that they can decide which of the two leaders they like," explained Dr. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky.
But Voss emphasizes that it's too early to count out the other big contenders in the race. He points to the 2015 GOP gubernatorial primary as an example of a late change helping the "dark horse" candidate win.
"In 2015, late in the contest, we had a clash between the two people who were seen as maybe the leading candidates," said Voss. "And Matt Bevin was the dark horse who was able to slip into the nomination."
Voss says the other contenders must stay relevant in the race, however. He points out that Ryan Quarles, who is running a grassroots campaign, or Alan Keck, who is a popular mayor of Somerset, or Eric Deters, who is a "conservative firebrand" may have a strong enough support system of voters. After all, to win the nomination in Kentucky, a candidate does not need to win over the majority of the Republican voters. They just need more votes than the other candidates.
"You don't need to try to win over the average Republican primary voter," said Voss. "You need to have a core of committed supporters who show up."
